Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2092 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 2092 · ORD → LGA

departs 8:00 AM CT · arrives 11:17 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.40 in

LGA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2092 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?