Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2285 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 2285 · SMF → DEN

departs 8:50 AM PT · arrives 12:16 PM MT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ This flight has been late 4% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts37 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2285 · SMF → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?