Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2368 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 2368 · DEN → MSN

departs 10:12 AM MT · arrives 1:33 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at MSN that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ MSN usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into MSN at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts34 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.39 in

MSN (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.18 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2368 · DEN → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?