Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2741 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 2741 · LAX → LAS

departs 12:36 PM PT · arrives 1:48 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±17 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from LAX are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2741 · LAX → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?