Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 359 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 359 · ORD → MEX

departs 9:25 AM CT · arrives 12:25 PM CST

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MEX?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ ORD is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MEX

↓ Arrivals into MEX at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.50 in

MEX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 359 · ORD → MEX

Odds over time

How late will it get to MEX?