Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 485 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 485 · SAV → ORD

departs 8:49 AM ET · arrives 10:24 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ 8am departures from SAV are usually not late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAV (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility0.6 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.45 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 485 · SAV → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?