Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 501 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 501 · DEN → MCO

departs 1:48 PM MT · arrives 7:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

47% chance · ±10 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ 1pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts34 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.39 in

MCO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 501 · DEN → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?