UA 612 · IAD → LOS

departs 10:45 PM ET · arrives 2:40 PM WAT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at LOS more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±4 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LOS?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from IAD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LOS

↓ Arrivals into LOS at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.19 in

LOS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 612 · IAD → LOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LOS?