Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 652 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 652 · DEN → STL

departs 9:35 AM MT · arrives 12:42 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at STL that day

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ STL usually runs smoothly

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts37 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.30 in

STL (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.46 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 652 · DEN → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?