Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 797 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 797 · DEN → SBP

departs 11:43 AM MT · arrives 1:32 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at SBP more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SBP?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBP

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts37 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.30 in

SBP (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 797 · DEN → SBP

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBP?