Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8129 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UA 8129 · RDU → IAD

departs 6:01 AM ET · arrives 7:21 AM ET

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 67h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ RDU is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

RDU (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8129 · RDU → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?