Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

BAHAMASAIR · FLIGHT UP 142 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

UP 142 · FLL → FPO

departs 12:55 PM ET · arrives 1:48 PM EDT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at FPO more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to FPO?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from FLL are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at FPO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL

↓ Arrivals into FPO at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

FLL (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

FPO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precip0.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UP 142 · FLL → FPO

Odds over time

How late will it get to FPO?