Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1037
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 1037 · BWI → JAX
departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 10:17 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Wed 10/14 8%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 24%
Sat 10/17 18%
Mon 10/19 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.06 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.