Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1098
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 1098 · BWI → ORF
departs 12:32 PM ET · arrives 1:37 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14 10%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
ORF usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into ORF at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
ORF (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.