Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1130
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 1130 · DAL → BWI
departs 3:44 PM CT · arrives 7:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.