Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 131
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 131 · DEN → CUN
departs 10:43 AM MT · arrives 3:39 PM EST
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Tue 10/13 13%
Wed 10/14 24%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 13%
Sat 10/17 12%
Sun 10/18 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at CUN more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CUN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at CUN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to CUN?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
10am departures from DEN are often late
↓
CUN usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into CUN at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.39 in
CUN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.