Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1411
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 1411 · MDW → FLL
departs 8:48 AM CT · arrives 12:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 13%
Sun 10/18 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FLL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at FLL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FLL?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Arrivals into FLL at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at FLL
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.50 in
FLL (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.