Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1527
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 1527 · DEN → ABQ
departs 11:53 AM MT · arrives 1:18 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Tue 10/13 16%
Wed 10/14 28%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at ABQ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ABQ?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
11am departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Gusts to 25 kt forecast at ABQ that day
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.30 in
ABQ (destination)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.