Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1529
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 1529 · MDW → BNA
departs 8:33 AM CT · arrives 10:03 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 7%
Sat 10/17 5%
Sun 10/18 15%
Mon 10/19 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.60 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.