Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1581
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 1581 · PHL → DEN
departs 5:19 AM ET · arrives 7:09 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.2d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from PHL are usually not late
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.