Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1587
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 1587 · PHL → MDW
departs 6:54 AM ET · arrives 8:02 AM CT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHL is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
PHL is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.01 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.