Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1798
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 1798 · DEN → STL
departs 10:26 AM MT · arrives 1:36 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 17%
Mon 10/19 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
10am departures from DEN are often late
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into STL at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.31 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.47 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.