Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1871
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 1871 · ABQ → LAS
departs 10:54 AM MT · arrives 11:33 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 18%
Mon 10/19 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±13 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Gusts to 30 kt forecast at LAS that day
↑
Thursdays in October are usually busier than average
↓
Gusts to 43 kt forecast at ABQ that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
ABQ (origin)
Gusts 43 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.