Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1969
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 1969 · DEN → TUS
departs 8:34 AM MT · arrives 9:40 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
TUS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 45% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into TUS at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.30 in
TUS (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.