Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 198
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 198 · MDW → DAL
departs 3:54 PM CT · arrives 6:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 24%
Sat 10/17 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at DAL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAL?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAL
↓
MDW is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.50 in
DAL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.