Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2472
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 2472 · AUS → DEN
departs 1:57 PM CT · arrives 3:16 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 22%
Mon 10/19 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from AUS are often late
↓
AUS usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.