Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2512
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 2512 · DEN → MCI
departs 10:32 AM MT · arrives 1:20 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Tue 10/13 9%
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 14%
Sat 10/17 9%
Sun 10/18 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MCI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCI?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
↓
Arrivals into MCI at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.39 in
MCI (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.