Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2621
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 2621 · MCI → DEN
departs 6:53 AM CT · arrives 7:38 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 5%
Sun 10/18 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.3 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from MCI are usually not late
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.35 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.