Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2798
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 2798 · SDF → DEN
departs 11:04 AM ET · arrives 11:55 AM MT
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at SDF that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
SDF usually runs smoothly
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.2 mi Precip 0.33 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.