Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2799
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 2799 · BOS → MDW
departs 4:49 PM ET · arrives 6:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
4pm departures from BOS are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
MDW usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
BOS (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.55 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.