Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2805
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 2805 · MCO → PHX
departs 12:34 PM ET · arrives 2:20 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 20%
Mon 10/19 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
12pm departures from MCO are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.