Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2878
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 2878 · MDW → DEN
departs 2:27 PM CT · arrives 3:58 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Tue 10/13 17%
Wed 10/14 24%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 25%
Sun 10/18 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MDW is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.50 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.