Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3003
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 3003 · PHL → MDW
departs 11:30 AM ET · arrives 12:39 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
11am departures from PHL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.18 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.