Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 302
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 302 · MCI → AUS
departs 7:24 PM CT · arrives 9:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 25%
Sat 10/17 21%
Mon 10/19 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at MCI that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 1.60 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.