Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3250
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 3250 · OMA → LAS
departs 2:39 PM CT · arrives 3:29 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 28%
Sun 10/18 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±18 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at OMA that day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
OMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
OMA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip 0.45 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.