Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3302
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 3302 · ORF → BWI
departs 12:09 PM ET · arrives 1:22 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 10%
Sun 10/18 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at BWI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BWI?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
BWI usually runs smoothly
↓
Cloud base down to 1,400 ft forecast at ORF that day
Weather at each end
ORF (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 1,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BWI (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.