Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3433
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 3433 · PHL → MDW
departs 3:20 PM ET · arrives 4:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 37%
Mon 10/19 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
3pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.60 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.