Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 345
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 345 · AUS → LAS
departs 7:15 AM CT · arrives 8:14 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Tue 10/13 15%
Wed 10/14 15%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 8%
Sat 10/17 13%
Sun 10/18 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±6 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
LAS is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.