Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3890
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 3890 · DEN → GRR
departs 10:39 AM MT · arrives 3:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at GRR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GRR?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at GRR that day
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
GRR usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.30 in
GRR (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.17 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.