Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3896
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 3896 · DEN → COS
departs 1:14 PM MT · arrives 2:02 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 30%
Mon 10/19 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
52%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at COS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Arrive at COS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to COS?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 200 ft forecast at COS that day
↑
1pm departures from DEN are often late
↓
COS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.31 in
COS (destination)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.