Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3994
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 3994 · SNA → LAS
departs 5:34 PM PT · arrives 6:49 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 33%
Sun 10/18 21%
Mon 10/19 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±17 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
55%
Arrive 1h+ late
18%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
55%
Yes 55%
No 45%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
33%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.