Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4124
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 4124 · STL → LAS
departs 7:47 AM CT · arrives 9:14 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 6%
Sun 10/18 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±6 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at STL that day
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from STL are usually not late
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.30 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.