Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4312
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 4312 · SFO → BUR
departs 1:57 PM PT · arrives 3:21 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 45%
Sat 10/17 31%
Sun 10/18 38%
Mon 10/19 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 46% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.