Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4389
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 4389 · HOU → LAS
departs 4:59 PM CT · arrives 6:14 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 35%
Sun 10/18 28%
Mon 10/19 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
51%
chance · ±15 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
51%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at HOU
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.01 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.