Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4419
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 4419 · ABQ → DEN
departs 8:54 AM MT · arrives 10:19 AM MT
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 14%
Sun 10/18 17%
Mon 10/19 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
44%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
44%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Leave ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 37 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
8am departures from ABQ are usually not late
↓
Gusts to 43 kt forecast at ABQ that day
Weather at each end
ABQ (origin)
Gusts 43 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.