Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4466
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 4466 · SMF → LAS
departs 8:04 AM PT · arrives 9:34 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Wed 10/14 17%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 8%
Sun 10/18 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
LAS is busy at that time
↑
Thursdays in October are usually busier than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.