Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4536 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 15

WN 4536 · PHX → MKE

departs 7:09 AM MT · arrives 12:33 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MKE?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at MKE that day

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into MKE at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ MKE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MKE (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4536 · PHX → MKE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MKE?