Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4599
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 4599 · DEN → ECP
departs 1:14 PM MT · arrives 5:16 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at ECP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ECP?
On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
1pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ECP
↓
ECP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.30 in
ECP (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.