Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4827
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 4827 · DAL → LGA
departs 6:17 AM CT · arrives 10:47 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Tue 10/13 8%
Wed 10/14 7%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 11%
Sat 10/17 8%
Sun 10/18 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 37% of the time recently
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from DAL are usually not late
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 5,867 ft Visibility 7.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.