Schedule: the flights that flew on Thursday, Oct 8, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4849
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 15
WN 4849 · MKE → DEN
departs 11:24 AM CT · arrives 12:57 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/15
Fri 10/16 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt, cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at MKE that day
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
MKE usually runs smoothly
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.22 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 37 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.30 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.